Who Wins and Who Loses in a Global Trade War?

Article from Harry Dent, some snippets:


My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II.

The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776.

But there’s a catch, as Australian Steve Keen, one of those rare economists who truly understands how the world works, says. That is, you can’t just switch from one major industry to the other without some major costs to infrastructures and labor unemployment. So once you’ve set off down a particular path of specialization, there’s really no turning back.

You can’t turn a steel mill into a semiconductor factory, or at least not without major retooling and costs. And the skills that staff must possess to work in each kind of plant differ wildly.

In short, specialization of labor is good, until it turns bad. So too, globalization has been an economic boon, until now…

We’ve reached that point where it’s time for a reset before we can progress once again.

Global trade, just like any other trend, surged and has now hit its limits. It must reset and consolidate before it can resurge again.

This is the nature of any cycle!


If Dent is indeed right, then things look bleak, in particular for Hong Kong and Singapore, but also for Malaysia, three countries that depend a lot on international trade.

Time will tell ....