Monday 15 July 2013

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity to Buy Barrick Gold?

John Dowdee wrote an article "Once in a Lifetime Opportunity to Buy Barrick Gold!" at the website of The Motley Fool, some excerpts:

The all-in costs for the three largest gold mines are projected from their annual reports as:

  • Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX): $950 to $1025 per ounce
  • Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM): $1100 to $1200 per ounce
  • Goldcorp (NYSE: GG): $1000 to $1100 per ounce

Gold is searching for a bottom

These all-in costs are important because this week gold dipped below the $1200 per ounce level for the first time since 2009, which is getting very close to the all-in costs. If the price of bullion does not recover, then some of the higher priced mines will become unprofitable and will be taken offline. This will sharply reduce supply and should cause the price of bullion to rebound. So my Foolish belief is that the price of gold bullion is finally bottoming and, if true, this is excellent news for the mining stocks.

Since last October, the price of gold bullion has cratered over 25%. In the same timeframe, both GG and NEM have declined 36% but ABX has crashed by almost 60%! Why did one of the world’s largest gold miners, with the cheapest all-in costs, collapse so much more than the other, more expensive mining companies? The answer is two words: Pascua-Lama.

The reason behind Barrick’s fall

Pascua-Lama is a gold mine in the Andes Mountains on the border of Chile and Argentina. It sits at over 14,000 feet above sea level on top an estimated 17 million ounces of gold and 635 million ounces of silver, with about 75% of the deposits on the Chilean side. When completed this will be one of the world’s cheapest sources of gold but the construction is about 2 years behind schedule (now projecting a 2016 completion) and is substantially over cost (now projected to be $8.5 billion rather than the original estimate of $3 billion).

However, the most pressing issue is that construction has been stopped by the Chilean government due to some environmental issues (the site is near 3 glaciers). It is not clear when these issues will be resolved but this is an important project for Chile as well as Barrick so I expect that an accommodation will be reached later this year. When this stoppage was announced in April, Barrick fell hard from around $30 per share to under $20 in a few days and has yet to recovery (current price is less than $16 per share).

Compelling metrics

In virtually every value metric, Barrick shines when compared with its peers. Barrick’s forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is extremely low at 4.9 and is significantly lower than Newmont (9.3) and Goldcorp (12.4). In terms of price-to-book, Barrick comes in at a compelling 0.7 compared with 1.1 for Newmont and 0.9 for Goldcorp. Perhaps one of the best metrics is the dividend yield. Barrick is now paying over 5% which is higher than Newmont and much higher the Goldcorp. So Barrick will pay you to wait for improvement in the Pascua-Lama situation.

Based on the above analysis, I believe the recent decline of Barrick was overdone. Pascua-Lama is important to Barrick’s future, but it is not a make-or-break proposition. Even without Pascua-Lama, Barrick owns over 26 mines that produced over 7 million ounces of gold last year. Barrick also has over 120 million ounces of gold and about a billion ounces of silver in reserves.

Foolish bottom line

When the Pascua-Lama issue is resolved, Barrick should rocket ahead, but until then, the company is one of Wall Street’s most unloved stocks! Thus, based on the old Wall Street adage, it may be time for Foolish investors to back up the truck and load up with this gold stock. If you can handle the volatility, then I believe that long-term investments in Barrick will be well rewarded.

I wrote before about gold miners. I quite like mining companies at the current price, and have started to accumulate a few, including Barrick Gold. However, investors should be ready to stomach potential losses, sentiment is terrible at the moment and the stocks of mining companies can easily fall further. If that happens I will buy some more, I don't think a whole industry can be wiped out. Normally, if shares of companies in a beaten down industry do recover, it will be the blue chips who are leading the charge.

A more negative story, to balance things out, from the same The Motley Fool: "Can Gold Miners Drop Even Further?"

Sarfaraz Khan writes:

"Analysts have also pointed out that some of the leading gold miners are going to write down the value of their assets in the coming quarters. While some believe that the sector has hit rock bottom, I think that it can go down even further."

Note: this is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares. Readers should do their own homework and decide themselves.

1 comment:

  1. Very interesting:;range=1m;compare=gld;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

    When the original article came out (5 July 2013) the share price dropped, but then when you blogged it (15 July 2013) it went up quite a bit.

    Was this your own money?
    Or do you have many followers?