Wednesday, 25 March 2015

To Cliq or not to Cliq?

Cliq Energy has finally announced its qualifying acquisition, an investment in an oil and gas company based in Kazakhstan.

Regular readers know I am not "exactly" a fan of DCF valuations. Unfortunately, it has been used in this case:

The price of oil that is used in the DCF model is the prevailing price in December 2014.

However, the price of oil has since drastically fallen:

I certainly hope that a new DCF will be calculated, based on the recent price of oil. It will give a much lower outcome, is my estimate. Hopefully the details of the DCF will be published, although I doubt that.

Cliq had a long time to come up with its proposal, so we can expect lots of financial numbers.

Unfortunately, it is very disappointing:

Some comments:
  • Not a single balance sheet number of Phystech;
  • Some profit & loss numbers, however no PBT or PAT but the dreaded EBITDA (whenever they are presented, the earnings are much lower than the EBITDA number, we have to wait and see if that is also the case here);
  • EBITDA for 2013 only RM 23 Million, does not really look exciting;
  • Numbers are only up to December 2013 (15 months old), even tiny ACE-listed companies have already announced their (unaudited) December 2014 numbers a month ago, why can't Phystech give their unaudited numbers?

I have seen excellent formats provided by research houses where lots and lots of relevant data regarding a company is packed in one single page. Although the announcement of Cliq counts 26 full pages, relevant numbers are very scarce, lots of important (financial) information is left out.

We must hope that the official brochure to Cliq's shareholders will be of a much higher quality.

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