Wednesday, 4 January 2017

Is there value in the RM?

Malaysia Market Strategy from UBS: "2017 - A glass half full or half empty?".

Lots of negative stuff regarding 2016 ("a year to forget"):

  • KLCI down for 3rd year in a row
  • Earnings growth down for 4th year in a row (because of this shares still do not look cheap, on average, value probably more to be found in selected small and medium cap shares)
  • Slowing domestic demand, ongoing political concerns, etc

The RM is at an all-time low level against the USD, but there might be value there, according to this graph:

I am not exactly an expert on "REER" (Real Effective Exchange Rate"), but if the above picture is an objective evaluation of the current situation, then the RM looks definetely cheap. However, buyer beware, things can stay cheap for a long time.

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