Jim Rogers, Hugh Hendry and Albert Edwards are three people I have a lot of respect for. So if the three disagree about a subject, that means we are in interesting but conflicting times. In this case Rogers claims there is no hard landing for China, contrary to Hendry and Edwards. I tend to side with Hendry and Edwards, based on anecdotic evidence from China, Singapore's GDP shrinking and Western economies doing badly.
Article from investmentweek:
Rogers: Why Hendry and Edwards are wrong on China
23 Jul 2012, Katie Holliday
Jim Rogers has dismissed fears of a hard landing in China, saying slowing growth is simply proof the authorities are managing the economy as they intended.
Rogers’ bullish views on China’s long-term economic prospects place him at odds with well-known China bears Hugh Hendry of Eclectica and SocGen’s Albert Edwards.
“Hugh has been dead wrong about China for three years now and China has not collapsed as he predicted, loudly, verbally and widely,” said Rogers.
“Albert has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa.”
Hendry, who runs the CF Eclectica Absolute Macro fund, has refuted claims China will act as the main driver for global economic growth and is extremely bearish on Asia as a whole, while SocGen’s Edwards expects China to suffer an extreme hard landing which will prompt stocks to collapse.
China’s benchmark index hit its lowest level in three and a half years last week, and the region’s slowing growth continues to fuel investor concern. The Shanghai Composite index closed at 2,147 on Monday – its lowest level since March 2009 and 40% down on August 2009 highs of 3,471.
In March, Rogers told Investment Week he was banking on a sharp sell-off of Chinese shares as an opportunity to buy back in, and last week’s price falls have caught his attention.
“The lower they go, the more interested I become,” he said. A full blown share price collapse could be triggered by any kind of shock event, according to Rogers, from a bankruptcy in Spain, Italy or the UK, to rocketing inflation or a natural disaster.
Showing posts with label Hugh Hendry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hugh Hendry. Show all posts
Thursday, 26 July 2012
Sunday, 30 October 2011
Hugh Hendry at LSE AIC
Hedgefund manager Hugh Hendry in hus usual self: funny, interesting, highly controversial and outspoken in his Scottish accent.
Greece, Iceland, European troubles, China, the Yen and the Dollar are just some of the subjects he talks about.
Greece, Iceland, European troubles, China, the Yen and the Dollar are just some of the subjects he talks about.
Tuesday, 27 September 2011
France bans cash sales of Gold & Silver
France Bans Cash Sales Of Gold & Silver Over $600
Central banks are presumably so frightened that a growing number of citizens are abandoning rapidly devaluing paper currencies and preserving their wealth through precious metals that governments are now cracking down on the anonymous purchase of gold and silver.
"Following the Austrian government’s announcement that it was restricting the sales of precious metals to $20,000 a time, an amount which would purchase just 11 ounces, the French authorities have followed suit with an equally draconian new measure to deter people from buying gold and silver."
Outspoken hedgefund manager Hugh Hendry is giving his opinion about the crisis in Europe.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-critical-debate-eurozone-crisis-2011
"Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, whose prediction of the crisis in the Eurozone was spot on, says we're at a rare moment in economic history. "The problem is greater than the ability of the politicians to respond," he says in a radio debate on BBC's Bottom Line. "There is no policy prescription that they can offer that will redeem the situation. The redemption will come through the citizens of Greece and elsewhere throwing the politicians out and rejecting the European ideal." Hendry's view on what the solution should be (a Greek default that doesn't protect the creditors) is quite different than Evan Davis' — the BBC host — and Brent Hobermann's of mydeco.com, another guest on the show."
"Hendry has other ideas about a solution. He says, "Bankruptcy is a solution [because] creditors who extended that debt [to Greece] — that was a folly. All this firefighting is trying to protect the creditors, as opposed to the oppressed person." Hendry's view is that Greece should default and leave the Euro. "Greece needs a real exchange rate," he says. "If you go on a drachma and [a beer in Greece is] .50p, there's a stimulus that's not open to them today [cheaper money]." Hendry says the UK is in depression - not recession - and it will take years to get back to where we were in 2006 and 2007. It's been 5 years since the financial crisis, and it might take another."
"Following the Austrian government’s announcement that it was restricting the sales of precious metals to $20,000 a time, an amount which would purchase just 11 ounces, the French authorities have followed suit with an equally draconian new measure to deter people from buying gold and silver."
"$600 USD isn’t even enough to purchase a half ounce of gold. This guarantees that citizens who are trying to transfer their savings over to precious metals will be known to the authorities, leaving them vulnerable to government confiscation of their gold and silver later on down the line, as happened in 1933 under FDR.
Why are central banks and governments in Europe so eager to make it as difficult as possible for citizens to buy precious metals? It’s largely because unlike every other financial commodity, they don’t have the market completely under their control, and cannot tolerate the idea of people having true power over their own economic destiny."Outspoken hedgefund manager Hugh Hendry is giving his opinion about the crisis in Europe.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-critical-debate-eurozone-crisis-2011
"Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, whose prediction of the crisis in the Eurozone was spot on, says we're at a rare moment in economic history. "The problem is greater than the ability of the politicians to respond," he says in a radio debate on BBC's Bottom Line. "There is no policy prescription that they can offer that will redeem the situation. The redemption will come through the citizens of Greece and elsewhere throwing the politicians out and rejecting the European ideal." Hendry's view on what the solution should be (a Greek default that doesn't protect the creditors) is quite different than Evan Davis' — the BBC host — and Brent Hobermann's of mydeco.com, another guest on the show."
"Hendry has other ideas about a solution. He says, "Bankruptcy is a solution [because] creditors who extended that debt [to Greece] — that was a folly. All this firefighting is trying to protect the creditors, as opposed to the oppressed person." Hendry's view is that Greece should default and leave the Euro. "Greece needs a real exchange rate," he says. "If you go on a drachma and [a beer in Greece is] .50p, there's a stimulus that's not open to them today [cheaper money]." Hendry says the UK is in depression - not recession - and it will take years to get back to where we were in 2006 and 2007. It's been 5 years since the financial crisis, and it might take another."
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